Property buyers might think that south-east Qld will be the next region to boom, but forecasters have cautioned that growth may be far more moderate than anticipated.
Speaking at the BIS Shrapnel Forecasting Conference last week, the company’s managing director Robert Mellor said previous predictions that Brisbane and surrounding regions would follow in Sydney’s footsteps and see rapid property price growth may need to be adjusted.
“If you’d asked me 12 to 18 months ago I would have said Brisbane is really the next hot place to go, [but now] I would be very cautious because the population growth is probably not going to be as strong as we thought in the past and certainly there are some big risks with apartments,” he said.
Kim Hawtrey, BIS Shrapnel’s associate director – building forecasting, said Brisbane in particular was heading into serious apartment oversupply.“Too many apartments [are being] built,” he said. “Attached dwellings have gone into dramatic oversupply.”
Mr Mellor said investors would likely find more success if they looked beyond the inner city.
“You’re probably better off buying houses out in the suburbs, where there is probably still an undersupply,” he advised.
Mr Hawtrey said demand for detached housing in the region remained “unsatisfied” but, according to Mr Mellor, even this didn’t guarantee the price growth people had previously been anticipating.
“It’s not like it’s a foregone conclusion that Qld is just going to be the next place – particularly south-east Qld – to take off,” Mr Mellor added.
“I think the growth is going to be modest price growth compared to what we’ve seen in NSW.”
Even though Brisbane appears to be undersupplied in aggregate terms, according to BIS Shrapnel’s figures, it remains at “significant risk” of oversupply, Mr Mellor said.
“They’re building about two to three times [the average] level that they were building over the last 10 to 15 years. […] While we do not deny there is a significant shift in the demand by both owner-occupiers and renters for high-density apartment living, while that shift is occurring, we don’t believe the current numbers across the country justify how much high-density construction we’re seeing – and that will result in oversupply.”
Mr Mellor questioned whether the current level of construction in south-east Qld was sustainable.
He said it was a certainty that a “downturn will be underway” in Brisbane within 12 to 18 months. He forecast the “very significant construction boom” would peak “very shortly” and predicted a median property price fall of four per cent by the early part of 2017.
Dr Hawtrey said the downturn would hit the apartment market first.
“High-density will see the correction first; [it’s in] for a sharp correction in Australia and the law of diminishing returns is about to set in. Indigestion in the market is about to set in.”
He added: “We believe that the record-high levels [of dwelling commencements] which we’re at are largely unsustainable. And we’re going to see that be the first sector of the market to get the correction.”
Luxury Noosa home fetches $8m as buyers rush to cash in
INTERSTATE buyers lusting after the Noosa lifestyle are forking out millions for waterfront properties, as they rush to cash out of Sydney and Melbourne’s flagging housing markets.
INTERSTATE buyers lusting after the idyllic Noosa lifestyle are forking out millions for waterfront estates, as they rush to cash out of Sydney and Melbourne’s flagging housing markets.
The ink has just dried on the purchase of an ultra luxurious, waterfront home in Noosa Heads for a cool $8 million in one of the biggest settlements in the resort town so far this year.
Selling agent Adam Watts of Century 21 Conolly Hay Group said the four-bedroom, four-bathroom Hamptons style property, with its own private jetty, at 45 Witta Circlehad just settled after selling to an expat to use as a holiday home.
Mr Watts said interstate and international inquiry for Noosa’s prestige market was strong, with many people wanting to move there for the lifestyle — not just to buy a holiday home.
A luxurious house on the waterways of Noosa Sound has also just sold for $5.75 million to a Melbourne buyer planning to retire in the sunshine state.
Selling agent Nic Hunter of Tom Offermann Real Estate said another two, older-style properties had gone under contract in the same street at the weekend for around the $4 million mark each.
And down the road in Sunrise Beach, another four bedder on the beachfront has just been signed for $4.2 million.
Mr Hunter said the buyer of 27 Mossman Court had previously owned a holiday villa in Noosa, but decided it was time to move there for good.
“There are five bedrooms, so plenty of room for all the family to come and visit,” Mr Hunter said.
“He wants to enjoy fishing out on the jetty with the grandkids.”
Mr Hunter said the increase in interstate migration to Queensland was being felt strongly in the Noosa region, with buyers snapping up properties on the water with proximity to Hastings Street and room to park a boat.
“It’s a big trend going on here at the moment,” he said.
“The higher-end, lifestyle seekers are fuelling the market — mostly from interstate.”
The latest Herron Todd White property market outlook reveals expat buyers benefiting from the weaker Australian dollar are looking to the Sunshine Coast as Sydney and Melbourne investors feel the effects of a softening market.
The report cites proximity to the beach as a driving factor for purchasers, which was expected to continue in 2019.
HTW expects the prestige markets in Noosa to continue to see “some good activity this year on the back of some record sales in 2018, but it may be impacted by the slowdown in confidence in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
Originally published as Cool $8m for Noosa dream home
Aussie hotspots enjoying a sudden property boom
Property prices across the country saw their steepest fall in 15 years in 2018, bringing them back to 2016 levels in what has been a housing downturn like no other.
But it’s not bad news everywhere – while investors shy away from Sydney and Melbourne, there are some hotspots which are enjoying a sudden property market boom, according to news.com.au.
The South East and Gold Coast regions are seeing the most buying activity, with Brisbane, Moreton Bay, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich booming along with the Gold Coast, Tugun and Burleigh Heads.
Unsurprisingly Hobart is the strongest property market, although activity has spread beyond the inner city and into the middle and outer rings, while Launceston has also recorded solid interest.
The entire South Australian capital is booming, although most activity is happening in the inner city and Adelaide Hills.
New South Wales
While many investors have deserted Sydney, areas such as Paddington and Winston Hills and the nearby Central Coast are doing well.
Other booming areas are further north in Tweed Heads and Byron Bay.
View from the experts
Daniel Walsh of investment buyer’s agency Your Property Your Wealth, told news.com.au that investment activity has now firmly shifted to Queensland.
“We’re seeing rising demand particularly in the housing sector in southeast Queensland where yields are high and jobs are increasing due to the amount of government expenditure around infrastructure which is attracting families to the Sunshine State,” he said.
“With Brisbane’s population growth at 1.6 per cent and surrounding areas like Moreton Bay at 2.2 per cent, the Sunshine Coast at 2.7 per cent and Ipswich at 3.7 per cent, we are forecasting that Brisbane will be the standout performer over the next three to five years.”
Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee agreed, telling news.com.au Sydney investors especially had started to turn their attention north.
“Interest is strong in the Gold Coast across the board although there’s more action on the south side in places like Tugun and Burleigh Heads,” she said.
She added there was also a notable trend towards Tasmania, Adelaide and pockets of NSW such as Tweed Heads and Byron Bay.
Adelaide has also been flagged as finally booming after recently hitting the highest median house price ever recorded, largely driven by jobs and economic growth off the back of defence contracts, the announcement of the new Australian Space Agency and other investment in the area.
“Inner Adelaide, beachside and the Adelaide Hills tend to have the most activity but there’s also quite a lot of rental demand in low-cost suburbs so we’re expecting to see a bit more investment there in those really cheap suburbs over the next 12 months,” Conisbee said.
“There you can get houses for $250,000 so for an investor, it’s a relatively low cost in terms of outlay and the area is seeing really strong rental demand which means you’re more than likely to get tenants, so for investors it’s a really attractive area,” she said.
Why equity can help you buy again
Unlocking the equity in your home could help you purchase another. Chief executive of property advisory firm Property Mavens used her home’s equity to buy a Preston investment property. Picture: Lawrence Pinder
WE’VE all heard of the benefits of refinancing to get a better deal on your home loan, particularly a more competitive interest rate.
But what if refinancing could also help you buy an investment property?
“Borrowers may be able to refinance their existing home loan to access equity they may have built in their property, in order to buy an investment property,” Mortgage Choice chief executive Susan Mitchell said.
Refinancing with the aim of buying an investment property could allow borrowers to grow their wealth, according to Ms Mitchell, as, generally speaking, property was considered a safe asset class in Australia with decent returns over the long term.
“CoreLogic found that over the 10 years to June 2018, national dwelling values increased by over 40 per cent, a good return on investment,” she said.
But she cautioned there were a number of costs associated with refinancing, so it was important borrowers made an informed decision before jumping in.
The nuts and bolts
So, how does refinancing using equity work?
The Successful Investor managing director Michael Sloan explained that lenders would typically lend you 80 per cent of the market value of your home, less the debt you still owed against it.
“This is your usable equity as banks hold some back as security,” he said.
“So, say, for example, you have a $500,000 property and a $200,000 loan. Your usable equity will be $200,000,” he said.
As to what value investment property you could buy, Mr Sloan said a simple rule of thumb was to multiply your usable equity by four.
“But remember that one of the risks of property investing is spending too much,” he said.
“You need to buy well below the median house price ($742,000 in Melbourne, according to CoreLogic), in fact you shouldn’t be within $200,000 of it.”
Ms Mitchell said the figure depended on how much a lender determined a borrower could afford to repay.
“Available equity is important but the key factor a lender needs to consider is how much a borrower can afford,” she said.
“If a borrower does not have additional capacity to repay a proposed new loan, they may not be able to borrow, irrespective of how much equity they may hold,” she said.
Where do I sign?
And there’s the rub: having equity in your home is not a guarantee you’ll be able to access it.
“You can have a million dollars of equity but if you don’t satisfy the institution’s lending criteria, they are not going to loan you any money,” Mr Sloan said.
“The bottom line is they will take everything into consideration: for example, how many children you have, as the more you have the less you can borrow, your work situation and how much you spend on everything from your daily coffee to the tyres on your car.”
Lenders have also tightened their assessment procedures as a result of recent regulatory measures, such as The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) imposing a 10 per cent benchmark in growth on investment lending last year.
This was introduced in a bid to curb activity in the housing market, Ms Mitchell said.
“These regulatory measures have resulted in lenders increasing their scrutiny of a borrower’s ability to service a loan,” she said.
“When deciding if an applicant can afford a mortgage, a lender will consider a borrower’s available ongoing income and from this allow for existing debt commitments and living expenses,” she said.
“Their decision will also factor in a buffer for potential increases in interest rates.”
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Ms Mitchell advised that borrowers could overcome the increased scrutiny by getting “financially fit”.
“Get out of debt, spend your money wisely and adopt a disciplined savings strategy to show lenders you can service a loan,” she said.
Air Mutual director Damien Lawler advised would-be investors to consult an independent broker who could access a range of lenders, which might have varying assessment procedures.
“Everyone is talking about the banks tightening up – which they are – but there are banks, particularly the smaller, tier-two banks, who are still lending,” he said.
And finally …
Mr Sloan said his No.1 piece of advice for would-be property investors was to play it safe and to have some funds in reserve if things go wrong.
“You should never buy (another) property if you have no extra money available to you after you settle, so you need to have a buffer. And protect what you are building with income protection and life insurance, if you have a partner,” he said.
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